of pipelines....

There is no oil and gas without pipelines…

There is no power supply to Nigerian cities without pipelines

There is no export of crude oil without pipelines

Today the network of pipelines in the Niger Delta are being bombed…  Nigerian oil production had fallen below 1.7 million barrels a day for the first time since 1994, This is a problem.

A new group, the Niger Delta Avengers has claimed responsibilities for these attacks…. they say they want to ground the Nigerian economy. The have issued a potpourri of demands,

1.      they want fiscal federalism, which is always ok,

2.      they want an implementation of the National Conference reports, which is good,

but they also want personal apologies from a Federal Minister and relocation of universities, they want certain people released from detention. They say unless these demands are met, the attacks will continue.

The Nigerian Government response has been predictable……deploy armed soldiers to hunt and kill the bombers, however we must appreciate that oil and power supply are strategic assets, in fact power sector workers are barred from going on strike.

Nigerians have seen this movie before…oil bunkering in the Niger Delta is an old industry. President Obasanjo initial response to militancy was force, then negotiation. He jailed Asari Dokubo, and oil exports plunged……

President YarAdua had a more far reaching vision for the Niger Delta, he made peace with the militants, signed an amnesty deal, and oil production recovered, the amnesty payments, essentially a bribe ensured the pipelies were kept open.

President Goodluck an Ijaw, selected to be Vice President precisely because he was Ijaw and thus from the Niger Delta, maintained and expanded the amnesty programmer….oil flowed. Then 2015 elections came, and suddenly gas pipelies became targets in 2014, which was strange, because gas can’t be stolen from pipelines like crude oil, so that was a political bombing…the bombing of gas pipelines continued and that was one reason why power supply targets under President Johnathan were not reached.

President Buhari has maintained the amnesty deal, militants are still being paid.

So are we back to the era of militants?.it seems so

Strategically there are only 3 options…

1.      Give in to the Niger Delta Avengers demands

2.      Send in the army

3.      Mix of both…

Already the militants are engaged in a war of words with the ex-militants, Tompolo has ask the oil companies to go about their business, in defiance of the Niger Delta Avengers.

The Nigeria Niger Delta has seen armed struggle from the days of Boro to Asari, and the present agitation is still based on a faulty fiscal federalism that takes the revenues generated in the Niger Delta out of the Niger Delta. The delay in passing the PIB, that contains a Host Community Fund, has not helped, but it must be said that the Niger Delta could not pass the PIB when they held the presidency, they failed to do this.

But who are Niger Delta Avengers? Can we negotiate with ghosts? Should we even replay this movie?

Many things have happened since the last Niger Delta insurgency, a son of the Niger Delta has become president, the then militants are now billionaires, many militant soldiers have become pilots, divers, and responsible tax payers to the federation.

The South South has the Niger Delta Development Commission The South South as a region has the second lowest incidence of poverty in Nigeria, the South South has the lowest percentage of males with no education according to the AfriDev Info survey. the South South has achieved a lot and must not allow her region to slide back to the days of military Joint Task Force hunting militants in creeks……investors will flee, the nascent economy in the ND will stall and poverty and unemployment will rise. The South South are no longer “marginalized” they are now past holders of the highest office, and they must understand that responsibility…

Long term, Nigeria must stop paying bribes to militants and simply amend the constitution. The federal government cannot and should not be in the business of owning assets in states. If a state has oil, let the individual or community drill the oil, then the FGN should tax them.  In fiscal federalism terms, make derivation 67% of FAAC disbursements (as it was before), give the people their resources. It’s my belief that if the oil and assets are owned by the people, they will protect it.

This goes beyond oil, people are “illegally” mining gold and causing lead poisoning, why? Because the gold is owned by the Federal Government, not the state, so the states have no incentive to regulate and tax the miners, thus “illegal” unregulated and unpoliced mining carries on.

The violence in the Niger Delta starts and ends with oil and gas, Nigeria has danced around a strategic comprehensive solution because the FGN does not want to lose control of the oil fields of the Delta…..for how long?

Its our problem, we have to fix it…